Vince

My first Oscars prediction!

By Vincent Nguyen | March 10, 2023 12:49am PST

_{Image source: oscars.org}

This year’s Oscars is just around the corner and I’ve finally decided to publish my very first prediction (and article for that matter) of the Best Picture award. So without further ado, let’s get started.

THE LOSERS

Okay, technically these movies aren’t losers per se, rather they have a very slim chance of winning in my opinion. They’re great entertainment and mainstream movies that, historically, if you look back at previous years, don’t typically fare all that well in this type of field, so let’s just get them out of the way first.

Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, & Everything Everywhere All at Once might end up winning other awards on the night of the 95th Academy Awards (March 12th, 2023), but winning Best Picture will be a long shot.

If I had to pick one of these four movies with no chance of winning, it’d be Elvis. Let’s not beat around the bush, Colonel Tom Parker’s character (played by Tom Hanks) was rather irritating, to say the least, due to the terrible accent that Tom Hanks tried so hard to replicate, which comes out sounding fake and pretentious. No seriously, go YouTube Colonel Tom Parker and you’ll quickly notice that the real-life version barely has an accent.

Not to mention multiple scenes in this movie that felt overly exaggerated as if Elvis was a god among gods that had some sort of superhero powers. C’mon, he was a great musician with a little bit of luck, period.

Everything Everywhere All at Once within this category is probably the biggest shocker of this prediction considering the positive attention that it has garnered thus far. I’ve placed this movie here for this exact and simple reason, it’s very bizarre. This movie is like a mashup of The Matrix, Inception, one of the weirdest movies you’ve ever seen, mixed with a decent amount of kung fu, and this is the result.

Why is this bad then? The Matrix and Inception are great masterpieces, right? Yes, but when you take a great concept and you try to infuse it with another in a complicated and strange way, both story-wise and dialogue-wise, it becomes rather confusing to follow. There’s a limit as to how much can be done before people lose focus.

On a positive note, there seems to be an important message in Everything Everywhere that’s worth mentioning, which is, if you don’t try or get out of your comfort zone, you’ll never know your true potential. Unfortunately, this isn’t enough to win Best Picture.

Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water are superb popcorn flicks that you’d take your friends, or girlfriend, or boyfriend, or family, grandparents, cousins, mom, dad, etc to see for the night out and enjoy. There’s nothing bad about them that really stood out, unlike Mr. Tom Hanks’ portrayal of Tom Parker, yet nothing that defied greatness either. As I mentioned earlier, they’re great entertainment and mainstream type of movies that deserve a nomination for recognition.

THE IN-BETWEENS

Now let’s get a little more serious and talk about the ‘In-Betweens’, which are the movies that does something (or many things) well in their overall respective theme, story, characters, etc… but something is missing, like it’s almost there but not quite an A, maybe B-. I’ll try my best to explain what I mean for each movie, both the good and the bad.

Tár, The Fabelmans, & The Banshees of Inisherin belong in this category.

First, I want to start with Tár, and to be brutally honest, unless you know the history and terminology behind classical music, you’re not going to enjoy this movie very much. Perhaps I’m wrong about this, but I found it quite difficult to follow the dialogue and the things that were mentioned in this movie. I’m not sure what went through the writer’s mind(s) when they wrote this but they probably didn’t expect casuals like myself were going to watch it.

I suppose if you’re a classical music expert and enthusiast, you could relate to Tár on a greater level for the sake of enjoyment — even more so than the average viewer — but I found it to be unnecessarily complex.

Furthermore, Cate Blanchett’s role as Lydia Tár felt very patronizing in a way. Almost throughout the movie, she just exudes this condescending personality as if she’s smarter, classier, or just plain better than anyone else. If only there was a dubious award for most irritating portrayals, Lydia Tár and Colonel Tom Parker would certainly be on the top of that list.

On the flip side, what’s good about Tár? Well, you get a general idea of what it’s like to be a conductor/orchestrator. If all you’ve known about them before was that they basically guide a symphony orchestra and wave their wands in a majestic way, you’ll get a slightly better picture of them after watching it.

Next is The Fabelmans. Apparently, this movie is based loosely on Steven Spielberg’s life growing up, which is nice, but does it deserve the Best Picture award? Sadly, no. My main gripe about this film is that everyone in this movie seems a tad bit gleeful, most notably when they’re watching Sammy Fabelman’s (played by Gabriel LaBelle) amateur-crafted films.

The Fabelmans is another nice popcorn flick that I would’ve categorized into ‘The Losers’ category, but the fact that there are some neat little details and techniques about filmmaking in this movie, I’ve decided to put it right in between.

Finally, The Banshees of Inisherin is an interesting one. Filled with great sceneries, beautiful landscapes of the coast of Ireland, and… physical torture.

Led by Colin Farrell, who stars as Pádraic, the less intelligent, or rather bothersome one compared to his friend Colm (played by Brendan Gleeson), an aging yet talented man that’s also a man of his word, gives the viewers a simple message that life is too short to not take action.

The bad? What I couldn’t stand about this film was that it was like watching a horror movie where you’d constantly ask yourself, ‘why would you do that?’ or ‘why can’t you just leave it alone?’. It isn’t as irritating as the other roles that I’ve mentioned earlier since Pádraic was actually well played rather than there being any noticeable flaws in the acting.

THE CONTENDERS

Finally, only three juggernauts remain: All Quiet on the Western Front, Women Talking, & Triangle of Sadness.

You can’t go wrong with any of these titles, but only one can win, and it actually boils down to two out of three movies for me.

All Quiet on the Western Front gives us a really dark and gritty look at what soldiers actually went through during World War I. Director Edward Berger really delivers a sense of how terrifying it would be to enlist into battle that would inevitably get one killed — sooner rather than later.

The score in this movie was brilliantly crafted, Hans Zimmer’esque feel to it. Top-notch stuff. It sets the perfect tone at the right time and at the right moments throughout the entire movie. Hands down one of the best.

If you knew me, you’d know that I’m not really fond of Netflix Originals due to the type of content that they’ve released, but I was actually surprised that All Quiet on the Western Front kept me engaged throughout.

Next, we have Women Talking, the first 12-15 minutes got me hooked immediately and I couldn’t stop watching; It was gripping thanks to the score and cinematography. Kudos to director Sarah Polley for the opening vision of this magnificently crafted masterpiece.

The middle parts leading up to the end were gripping in their own rights in terms of the dialogue. The women provided a type of back-and-forth heated yet civilized debate that puts different perspectives for the viewers to think about. I just wish there was more cut scenes that actually showed how grotesque the men were, but it’s not a deal-breaker.

And last but not least, Triangle of Sadness.

This movie is just as gripping as Women Talking in the sense that there’s a deep level of mystery, which reminded me of the popular films based on Agatha Christie’s novels (Murder on the Orient Express & Death on the Nile), mixed with Quentin Tarantino’s style of cinematography.

From the beginning to the very end, Triangle of Sadness was truly suspenseful. This was the only movie out of the entire nominees I didn’t pause to watch later—a lot of questions that keep one guessing.

THE WINNER

My final verdict on this is a hard one, but after rewatching these three films, I’m going to break down why I think each movie will or will not win.

First, I thoroughly enjoyed Triangle of Sadness as it was thought-provoking and kept me wanting to know what was going to unfold next. It was initially my choice to win it by a landslide, but as I said, after rewatching all of my contenders for the second time, I’m not so sure this film maintains a constant theme throughout from beginning to end compared to Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front.

With that said, Triangle of Sadness is crossed off the list.

Continuing on to our narrowed list of just two now, both Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front have a constant theme from beginning to end as mentioned. By that I mean, what are these movies really trying to tell us? What message do the directors, writers, and storytellers want us to understand? Does it do an excellent job at this from the start, middle, end, and almost everywhere in between?

You can’t go wrong with either one as I have them pretty much tied at 1A and 1B. They’re both deserving to win and you shouldn’t be shocked if one of these takes top honours. It’s pretty much neck and neck. One is going to win by just a hair thread, I’m sure of it.

If I had to pick one, I would do so for this very reason: In a time where equality and women’s rights are at the forefront of society, where we still have a lot of work to do, where the world yearns for a female president in the United States of America, it might make sense in this regard that Women Talking will get the nod, and that’s what I’m going with as my choice for Best Picture this year.

I mean, All Quiet on the Western Front is an exceptionally well-made movie and I loved nearly every minute of it, but given the fact that there have been several great world war films that’ve been nominated for Best Picture in years past that didn’t win (1917, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge), it’s hard to justify putting All Quiet on the Western Front on a list of exceptions.

But who knows, records are meant to be broken, right? In any case, I’ll be supporting all three of my choice of contenders regardless of what happens. Heck, If Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Way of Water or Elvis ends up winning, then congratulations to them and the hard work they’ve put into filmmaking because movies barely get a chance to be in this elite group every year.

If All Quiet on the Western Front or Triangle of Sadness takes home the trophy, it’ll prove my previously stated reasons wrong (or right?), and these films will get the recognition they really deserve.